It’s fight week! UFC 272 comes tomorrow night, as we have one of the most anticipated fights of the past few years. Jorge Masvidal and Colby Covington have been verbally fighting for years since they used to train together, and now we finally get to see them fight.
I’m going to break down the five main card fights for UFC 272, let you know how the fights are going to go down and give you my best bets as well as fight predictions. I’ll start with the fifth fight on the main card, and work my way to the Main Event of UFC 272.
Sergei Spivac (13-3) vs Greg Hardy (7-4)
Sergei Spivac is a mid level Heavyweight fighter with good takedowns and good output when striking. Hardy will have a slight reach advantage and a significant weight advantage. That being said, I don’t expect much out of Hardy.
Hardy can throw hard, and he clipped Tai Tuivasa in their fight briefly before being flatlined. I pretty much expect Spivac to take down Hardy and wrestle him for three rounds. Hardy used to play football so his technical abilities are less than most other fighters.
Hardy was accused in 2014 of abusing his ex-girlfriend, and since then reached a civil settlement with her. I hope Spivac unloads on Hardy with God’s wrath.
Prediction: Spivac wins
Best bet: Spivac moneyline -190
Kevin Holland (21-7) vs Alex Oliveira (22-11-1)
Kevin Holland has had a crazy UFC career so far. He fought five times and won all five in 2020 before losing two of three in 2021. He makes his 2022 debut against Alex Oliveira, and hopes to get back to his winning ways.
Oliveira is immensely experienced in the UFC but has lost three in a row, two by submission and one by decision. Oliveira is a fun and exciting striker but I don’t expect that to go well against Holland. Holland is tall, long, and loves nothing more than to stand and bang.
This fight will certainly be a ton of fun to watch, and I expect a fairly impressive masterclass from Holland. Holland is at -340, so I don’t see value on the moneyline. Look at props and over/unders in this fight.
Prediction: Holland wins
Best Bet: Fight starts round 3 -110
Edson Barboza (22-10) vs Bryce Mitchell (14-1)
Edson Barboza is a legend of mixed martial-arts. He’s fought legends in multiple weight classes including Donald Cerrone, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Paul Felder, Bobby Green, Tony Ferguson, Anthony Pettis, Justin Gaethje, Kevin Lee, Dan Hooker, and Michael Johnson.
Barboza switched from 155 to 145 and now faces his toughest grappling threat since he fought Khabib. Bryce Mitchell is a country boy raised in Arkansas who has become an elite and dangerous grappler.
Mitchell holds one of two twister finishes in UFC history, and is a monster on the ground.
At the end of the day, I just do not see Mitchell being able to keep Barboza on the ground. Mitchell is an amazing grappler, but he’s never fought someone with the skill and technical striking ability that Barboza has.
I see Barboza using his reach and speed to beat Mitchell.
Prediction: Barboza wins
Best Bet: Barboza by decision +350
Rafael Dos Anjos (30-13) vs Renato Moicano (16-4-1)
Rafael Dos Anjos, or RDA to most of the MMA community, is an experienced grappler and striker who was once the UFC lightweight champion. He was supposed to faceoff against Rafael Fiziev, an elite striker, but Fiziev got covid in the past week.
He will be replaced by Renato Moicano who is coming off of a submission victory over Alex Hernandez just a few weeks ago. Moicano is a skilled grappler who has fought some of the best in his UFC tenure.
I honestly expect RDA to fight well, but fight boring. I expect lots of attempted takedowns, and I think Moicano will shock everyone and finish RDA before the end of the second round.
Prediction: Moicano wins
Best Bet: Moicano by Sub +500
Colby Covington (16-3) vs Jorge Masvidal (35-15)
This fight has been brewing for quite a while now. Jorge and Colby were once teammates at American Top Team where they both used to train. Now they have the two biggest mouths in the UFC and are fighting for the claim to “best fighter in Miami.”
Colby is a high level wrestler. He’s lost only one UFC fight to fighters NOT named Kamaru Usman, and that was back in 2015.
Jorge on the other hand is a highly experienced fighter that has 50 MMA fights in his career. He’s fought the likes of Stephen Thompson, Donald Cerrone, and Darren Till. He used to be a 155 pounder, but switched to 170 in the past six years.
Both of these fighters are three and two in their last five fights… and all four losses have come to current Champion Kamaru Usman. These boys are fighting for second place at this point, but there’s no shame in that. Usman is a generational talent.
I expect Colby to put his wrestling to work here. He’ll have high pressure with constant punches, even though the punches will be more for volume than power. Masvidal has claimed he’s going to, “make it look easy,” and defend all of Colby’s takedowns.
I think Colby wins a boring fight most likely. I hope Masvidal can defend the takedowns well, but Colby is relentless.
Prediction: Colby wins
Best Bet: Colby by Decision -125